Why Raila Odinga Should Pick Kalonzo

Picking a vice president is obviously Raila Odinga’s decision to make. He must be comfortable with who he picks. Comfort level between a president and vice president may be the most important factor of all.

So I can only offer my argument, based on some facts and subjective impressions, as to why I believe it would be in Mr. Odinga’s personal and political interest to select Kalonzo Musyoka as his vice presidential running mate. Not just to enhance his chances of winning -- but, more important, to help him be a more effective president.

Let's start with one undisputable fact: Kalonzo Musyoka is the only candidate who gives Raila Odinga a statistically significant boost in any national poll results.

This is not a criticism of other candidates. This is simply a fact – Kalonzo Musyoka is the most senior politician from Eastern and commands more that 50% of Kamba votes.

In the latest polls conducted by Infotrack Research showed Kalonzo Musyoka giving Raila Odinga a +6% bump, pushing him over past William Ruto for the first time, when the two of them were paired against William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua.

In a head-on match, it was Raila Odinga 42% to William Ruto’s 42%. But with exactly the same sample, when all voters were presented with the choice of an Odinga-Kalonzo ticket vs. Ruto-Gachagua, the results were Odinga-Kalonzo, 48% (+6%), and Ruto-Gachagua 40% (-2%).

Can Raila Odinga win without Kalonzo Musyoka on the ticket? Yes he can. Majorities favor his views on most of the economic, social, and political issues. And his United States trip was virtually flawless, demonstrating that he can walk, talk and act like a president in foreign affairs and with foreign leaders.

However, with Kalonzo Musyoka on the ticket, I do not believe Raila Odinga can lose. He adds important strength to Raila Odinga's campaign in the key Kamba regions. And, thus, he could tip the balance in such key counties like Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, and Embu, as well as in the key battleground counties like Isiolo, Marsabit, and Meru.

So, considering this data, why not pick Kalonzo Musyoka?

Raila Odinga’s choice isn’t an easy one. But then leadership decisions seldom are, but they do give us insight into the character of the leader. For Odinga, his presidential character begins by doing what is right for himself and the nation he hopes to lead.